feat: odds calculation engine — ELO-based betting odds with house edge

Converts ELO ratings + streaks + recent form into betting odds. Supports decimal, fractional, and American formats. Includes bet validation, payout calculation, and 27 tests. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-03-08 00:30:57 +00:00
parent 669c914afc
commit 6ede5da675
3 changed files with 279 additions and 1 deletions
@@ -0,0 +1,151 @@
+import { describe, it, expect } from 'vitest'
+import {
+  eloProbability,
+  calculateOdds,
+  oddsToFractional,
+  oddsToAmerican,
+  calculatePayout,
+  validateBet,
+} from './odds.js'
+
+describe('eloProbability', () => {
+  it('equal ELO gives 50/50', () => {
+    expect(eloProbability(1200, 1200)).toBeCloseTo(0.5, 5)
+  })
+
+  it('higher ELO favored', () => {
+    expect(eloProbability(1400, 1200)).toBeGreaterThan(0.7)
+  })
+
+  it('lower ELO underdog', () => {
+    expect(eloProbability(1000, 1400)).toBeLessThan(0.15)
+  })
+
+  it('probabilities are complementary', () => {
+    const pA = eloProbability(1300, 1100)
+    const pB = eloProbability(1100, 1300)
+    expect(pA + pB).toBeCloseTo(1, 5)
+  })
+
+  it('extreme ELO difference stays finite', () => {
+    const p = eloProbability(100, 2500)
+    expect(p).toBeGreaterThan(0)
+    expect(p).toBeLessThan(0.001)
+    expect(isFinite(p)).toBe(true)
+  })
+})
+
+describe('calculateOdds', () => {
+  it('equal ELO gives near-even odds', () => {
+    const odds = calculateOdds(1200, 1200)
+    expect(odds.botAWinProb).toBeCloseTo(0.5, 1)
+    expect(odds.botBWinProb).toBeCloseTo(0.5, 1)
+    expect(odds.botADecimalOdds).toBeCloseTo(2.0, 0)
+  })
+
+  it('house edge reduces payout below fair odds', () => {
+    const odds = calculateOdds(1200, 1200, { houseEdge: 0.05 })
+    expect(odds.botAPayoutMultiplier).toBeLessThan(odds.botADecimalOdds)
+    expect(odds.botBPayoutMultiplier).toBeLessThan(odds.botBDecimalOdds)
+  })
+
+  it('favorite has lower payout multiplier', () => {
+    const odds = calculateOdds(1500, 1200)
+    expect(odds.botAPayoutMultiplier).toBeLessThan(odds.botBPayoutMultiplier)
+  })
+
+  it('streak adjusts probability', () => {
+    const noStreak = calculateOdds(1200, 1200)
+    const withStreak = calculateOdds(1200, 1200, { streakA: 5 })
+    expect(withStreak.botAWinProb).toBeGreaterThan(noStreak.botAWinProb)
+  })
+
+  it('probabilities always sum to 1', () => {
+    const odds = calculateOdds(1600, 1000, { streakA: 3, streakB: 1 })
+    expect(odds.botAWinProb + odds.botBWinProb).toBeCloseTo(1, 2)
+  })
+
+  it('probabilities capped between 2% and 98%', () => {
+    const odds = calculateOdds(3000, 500, { streakA: 5 })
+    expect(odds.botAWinProb).toBeLessThanOrEqual(0.98)
+    expect(odds.botBWinProb).toBeGreaterThanOrEqual(0.02)
+  })
+
+  it('spread reflects ELO difference', () => {
+    const odds = calculateOdds(1500, 1200)
+    expect(odds.spread).toBe(300)
+  })
+})
+
+describe('oddsToFractional', () => {
+  it('even money', () => {
+    expect(oddsToFractional(2.0)).toBe('1/1')
+  })
+
+  it('3/1', () => {
+    expect(oddsToFractional(4.0)).toBe('3/1')
+  })
+
+  it('1/2', () => {
+    expect(oddsToFractional(1.5)).toBe('1/2')
+  })
+})
+
+describe('oddsToAmerican', () => {
+  it('underdog shows positive', () => {
+    expect(oddsToAmerican(3.0)).toBe('+200')
+  })
+
+  it('favorite shows negative', () => {
+    expect(oddsToAmerican(1.5)).toBe('-200')
+  })
+
+  it('even money', () => {
+    expect(oddsToAmerican(2.0)).toBe('+100')
+  })
+})
+
+describe('calculatePayout', () => {
+  it('100 sats at 2x = 200', () => {
+    expect(calculatePayout(100, 2.0)).toBe(200)
+  })
+
+  it('floors to integer sats', () => {
+    expect(calculatePayout(100, 1.94)).toBe(194)
+  })
+})
+
+describe('validateBet', () => {
+  it('valid bet', () => {
+    expect(validateBet(1000).valid).toBe(true)
+  })
+
+  it('below minimum', () => {
+    const r = validateBet(50)
+    expect(r.valid).toBe(false)
+    expect(r.error).toContain('Minimum')
+  })
+
+  it('above maximum', () => {
+    const r = validateBet(200_000)
+    expect(r.valid).toBe(false)
+    expect(r.error).toContain('Maximum')
+  })
+
+  it('zero is invalid', () => {
+    expect(validateBet(0).valid).toBe(false)
+  })
+
+  it('negative is invalid', () => {
+    expect(validateBet(-100).valid).toBe(false)
+  })
+
+  it('non-integer is invalid', () => {
+    expect(validateBet(100.5).valid).toBe(false)
+  })
+
+  it('custom limits', () => {
+    expect(validateBet(50, 10, 100).valid).toBe(true)
+    expect(validateBet(5, 10, 100).valid).toBe(false)
+  })
+})
@@ -0,0 +1,127 @@
+// Odds calculation engine for BOTFIGHTS betting
+// Converts ELO ratings into fair betting odds with a configurable house edge
+
+export interface BettingOdds {
+  botAWinProb: number      // 0-1 probability of bot A winning
+  botBWinProb: number      // 0-1 probability of bot B winning
+  botADecimalOdds: number  // decimal odds (e.g. 2.0 = even money)
+  botBDecimalOdds: number
+  botAPayoutMultiplier: number  // after house edge
+  botBPayoutMultiplier: number
+  spread: number           // ELO difference (positive = A favored)
+}
+
+// Default house edge: 3% (97% payout)
+const DEFAULT_HOUSE_EDGE = 0.03
+
+/**
+ * Calculate win probability from ELO difference.
+ * Uses the standard ELO expected score formula.
+ */
+export function eloProbability(eloA: number, eloB: number): number {
+  return 1 / (1 + Math.pow(10, (eloB - eloA) / 400))
+}
+
+/**
+ * Calculate betting odds for a fight between two bots.
+ * Incorporates ELO ratings, win streaks, and recent form.
+ */
+export function calculateOdds(
+  eloA: number,
+  eloB: number,
+  opts: {
+    streakA?: number
+    streakB?: number
+    recentWinRateA?: number  // 0-1, last 10 fights
+    recentWinRateB?: number
+    houseEdge?: number
+  } = {},
+): BettingOdds {
+  const houseEdge = opts.houseEdge ?? DEFAULT_HOUSE_EDGE
+
+  // Base probability from ELO
+  let probA = eloProbability(eloA, eloB)
+
+  // Streak adjustment: hot streaks slightly increase probability (max 5% shift)
+  const streakA = Math.min(opts.streakA ?? 0, 5)
+  const streakB = Math.min(opts.streakB ?? 0, 5)
+  const streakShift = (streakA - streakB) * 0.01
+  probA = Math.max(0.02, Math.min(0.98, probA + streakShift))
+
+  // Recent form adjustment (max 3% shift)
+  if (opts.recentWinRateA != null && opts.recentWinRateB != null) {
+    const formShift = (opts.recentWinRateA - opts.recentWinRateB) * 0.03
+    probA = Math.max(0.02, Math.min(0.98, probA + formShift))
+  }
+
+  const probB = 1 - probA
+
+  // Fair decimal odds (no margin)
+  const fairOddsA = 1 / probA
+  const fairOddsB = 1 / probB
+
+  // Apply house edge: reduce payout by house edge percentage
+  const payoutRate = 1 - houseEdge
+  const payoutA = fairOddsA * payoutRate
+  const payoutB = fairOddsB * payoutRate
+
+  return {
+    botAWinProb: Math.round(probA * 1000) / 1000,
+    botBWinProb: Math.round(probB * 1000) / 1000,
+    botADecimalOdds: Math.round(fairOddsA * 100) / 100,
+    botBDecimalOdds: Math.round(fairOddsB * 100) / 100,
+    botAPayoutMultiplier: Math.round(payoutA * 100) / 100,
+    botBPayoutMultiplier: Math.round(payoutB * 100) / 100,
+    spread: eloA - eloB,
+  }
+}
+
+/**
+ * Convert decimal odds to display formats.
+ */
+export function oddsToFractional(decimal: number): string {
+  if (decimal <= 1) return '0/1'
+  const numerator = decimal - 1
+  // Find clean fraction
+  for (const denom of [1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 10, 20, 50, 100]) {
+    const num = numerator * denom
+    if (Math.abs(num - Math.round(num)) < 0.05) {
+      return `${Math.round(num)}/${denom}`
+    }
+  }
+  return `${Math.round(numerator * 100)}/100`
+}
+
+export function oddsToAmerican(decimal: number): string {
+  if (decimal >= 2) {
+    return `+${Math.round((decimal - 1) * 100)}`
+  }
+  return `-${Math.round(100 / (decimal - 1))}`
+}
+
+/**
+ * Calculate potential payout for a bet amount.
+ */
+export function calculatePayout(betAmount: number, payoutMultiplier: number): number {
+  return Math.floor(betAmount * payoutMultiplier)
+}
+
+/**
+ * Validate a bet amount against min/max limits.
+ */
+export function validateBet(
+  amountSats: number,
+  minBet: number = 100,
+  maxBet: number = 100_000,
+): { valid: boolean; error?: string } {
+  if (!Number.isInteger(amountSats) || amountSats <= 0) {
+    return { valid: false, error: 'Bet amount must be a positive integer (sats).' }
+  }
+  if (amountSats < minBet) {
+    return { valid: false, error: `Minimum bet is ${minBet} sats.` }
+  }
+  if (amountSats > maxBet) {
+    return { valid: false, error: `Maximum bet is ${maxBet} sats.` }
+  }
+  return { valid: true }
+}