test: scoring competitiveness analysis — speed, accuracy, duration
Simulated 1000+ fights with controlled conditions: - Speed dominance: faster bot (1.0s) wins 100% vs slower (1.5s) - Accuracy impact: 90% correct wins 84% vs 70% correct at equal speed - Both-correct max margin: 4.30 at extreme speed diff, barely crosses critical hit threshold (4) - Fight duration: avg 11.2 rounds equal speed, 7.4 when speed diff Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
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Dorian
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Claude Opus 4.6
Claude Opus 4.6
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import { describe, it, expect } from 'vitest'
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import { scoreRound, calculateElo } from './scoring.js'
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import { pickChallenge } from './challenges.js'
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import { writeFileSync, mkdirSync, existsSync } from 'node:fs'
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import { resolve, dirname } from 'node:path'
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import { fileURLToPath } from 'node:url'
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// Simulate fights with controlled conditions
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function simulateFight(opts: {
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bothCorrect: boolean
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botAAccuracy: number // 0-1 chance of correct
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botBAccuracy: number
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botASpeedMs: number // avg response time
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botBSpeedMs: number
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speedVariance: number // ± random variance
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rounds: number
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}) {
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let hpA = 200, hpB = 200
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let comboA = 0, comboB = 0
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const usedTypes = new Set<string>()
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const roundResults: { margin: number; isCritical: boolean; botADmg: number; botBDmg: number; winnerId: string | null }[] = []
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for (let r = 0; r < opts.rounds && hpA > 0 && hpB > 0; r++) {
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const challenge = pickChallenge(usedTypes, null)
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usedTypes.add(challenge.type)
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if (usedTypes.size >= 15) usedTypes.clear()
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const aCorrect = opts.bothCorrect || Math.random() < opts.botAAccuracy
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const bCorrect = opts.bothCorrect || Math.random() < opts.botBAccuracy
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const aTimeMs = Math.max(200, opts.botASpeedMs + (Math.random() - 0.5) * 2 * opts.speedVariance)
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const bTimeMs = Math.max(200, opts.botBSpeedMs + (Math.random() - 0.5) * 2 * opts.speedVariance)
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const aAnswer = aCorrect ? (challenge.answers?.[0] ?? 'correct') : 'wrong_answer_xyz'
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const bAnswer = bCorrect ? (challenge.answers?.[0] ?? 'correct') : 'wrong_answer_xyz'
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const result = scoreRound(
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challenge, { id: 'a1', name: 'BotA' }, { id: 'b1', name: 'BotB' },
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{ answer: aAnswer, timeMs: aTimeMs, timedOut: false, error: false, trashTalk: '' },
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{ answer: bAnswer, timeMs: bTimeMs, timedOut: false, error: false, trashTalk: '' },
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null, comboA, comboB,
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)
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const margin = Math.abs(result.botAScore - result.botBScore)
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if (result.winnerId === 'a1') {
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hpB -= result.botADamage
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hpA -= result.botBDamage
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comboA++
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comboB = 0
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} else if (result.winnerId === 'b1') {
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hpA -= result.botBDamage
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hpB -= result.botADamage
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comboB++
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comboA = 0
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} else {
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comboA = 0
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comboB = 0
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}
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roundResults.push({
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margin,
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isCritical: result.isCritical,
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botADmg: result.botADamage,
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botBDmg: result.botBDamage,
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winnerId: result.winnerId,
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})
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}
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const winnerId = hpA <= 0 ? 'b1' : hpB <= 0 ? 'a1' : (hpA > hpB ? 'a1' : hpB > hpA ? 'b1' : null)
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return { winnerId, hpA, hpB, rounds: roundResults }
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}
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describe('scoring competitiveness analysis', () => {
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const reportLines: string[] = []
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it('RESEARCH: 1000 fights where BOTH bots answer correctly — speed-only dynamics', () => {
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const N = 1000
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let aWins = 0, bWins = 0, draws = 0
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let totalMargins = 0, marginCount = 0
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let criticalCount = 0, totalRounds = 0
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const roundCounts: number[] = []
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for (let i = 0; i < N; i++) {
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const result = simulateFight({
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bothCorrect: true,
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botAAccuracy: 1,
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botBAccuracy: 1,
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botASpeedMs: 1000, // Bot A: 1s avg
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botBSpeedMs: 1500, // Bot B: 1.5s avg
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speedVariance: 500, // ±500ms variance
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rounds: 20,
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})
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if (result.winnerId === 'a1') aWins++
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else if (result.winnerId === 'b1') bWins++
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else draws++
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roundCounts.push(result.rounds.length)
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for (const r of result.rounds) {
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totalMargins += r.margin
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marginCount++
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if (r.isCritical) criticalCount++
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totalRounds++
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}
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}
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const avgMargin = marginCount > 0 ? totalMargins / marginCount : 0
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const avgRounds = roundCounts.reduce((a, b) => a + b, 0) / N
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const critRate = totalRounds > 0 ? criticalCount / totalRounds : 0
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const section = [
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'## Speed Dominance Analysis (1000 fights, both correct)',
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'',
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`- Faster bot (1.0s avg) wins: ${aWins} (${(aWins / N * 100).toFixed(1)}%)`,
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`- Slower bot (1.5s avg) wins: ${bWins} (${(bWins / N * 100).toFixed(1)}%)`,
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`- Draws: ${draws} (${(draws / N * 100).toFixed(1)}%)`,
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`- Avg margin per round: ${avgMargin.toFixed(2)}`,
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`- Critical hit rate: ${(critRate * 100).toFixed(1)}%`,
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`- Avg rounds per fight: ${avgRounds.toFixed(1)}`,
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`- Min/Max rounds: ${Math.min(...roundCounts)} / ${Math.max(...roundCounts)}`,
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'',
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]
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reportLines.push(...section)
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console.log('\n=== SPEED DOMINANCE ANALYSIS ===')
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section.forEach(l => console.log(` ${l}`))
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// Soft assertion — research task
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expect(true).toBe(true)
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})
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it('RESEARCH: 1000 fights — 90% vs 70% accuracy, similar speed', () => {
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const N = 1000
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let aWins = 0, bWins = 0, draws = 0
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const eloDeltas: number[] = []
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for (let i = 0; i < N; i++) {
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const result = simulateFight({
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bothCorrect: false,
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botAAccuracy: 0.9,
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botBAccuracy: 0.7,
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botASpeedMs: 1200,
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botBSpeedMs: 1200,
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speedVariance: 300,
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rounds: 20,
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})
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if (result.winnerId === 'a1') aWins++
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else if (result.winnerId === 'b1') bWins++
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else draws++
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// Calculate ELO delta for this fight
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if (result.winnerId) {
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const elo = calculateElo(1200, 1200)
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eloDeltas.push(elo.newWinnerElo - 1200)
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}
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}
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const avgEloDelta = eloDeltas.length > 0 ? eloDeltas.reduce((a, b) => a + b, 0) / eloDeltas.length : 0
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const section = [
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'## Accuracy Impact Analysis (1000 fights, 90% vs 70%)',
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'',
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`- High accuracy (90%) wins: ${aWins} (${(aWins / N * 100).toFixed(1)}%)`,
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`- Low accuracy (70%) wins: ${bWins} (${(bWins / N * 100).toFixed(1)}%)`,
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`- Draws: ${draws} (${(draws / N * 100).toFixed(1)}%)`,
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`- Avg ELO delta per fight: ${avgEloDelta.toFixed(1)}`,
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'',
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]
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reportLines.push(...section)
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console.log('\n=== ACCURACY IMPACT ANALYSIS ===')
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section.forEach(l => console.log(` ${l}`))
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// Soft assertion
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expect(true).toBe(true)
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})
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it('RESEARCH: both-correct scoring formula — max margin and critical hit possibility', () => {
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// Test multiple extreme speed differentials
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const challenge = pickChallenge(new Set(), null)
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if (!challenge.answers?.length) return
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const scenarios = [
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{ aMs: 200, bMs: 5000, label: 'extreme (200ms vs 5000ms)' },
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{ aMs: 500, bMs: 3000, label: 'large (500ms vs 3000ms)' },
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{ aMs: 1000, bMs: 1500, label: 'small (1000ms vs 1500ms)' },
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]
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const section = [
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'## Both-Correct Scoring Formula — Margin Analysis',
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'',
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'| Speed Diff | Score A | Score B | Margin | Critical? |',
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'|-----------|---------|---------|--------|-----------|',
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]
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for (const s of scenarios) {
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const result = scoreRound(
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challenge, { id: 'a1', name: 'BotA' }, { id: 'b1', name: 'BotB' },
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{ answer: challenge.answers[0], timeMs: s.aMs, timedOut: false, error: false, trashTalk: '' },
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{ answer: challenge.answers[0], timeMs: s.bMs, timedOut: false, error: false, trashTalk: '' },
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null, 0, 0,
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)
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const margin = Math.abs(result.botAScore - result.botBScore)
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section.push(`| ${s.label} | ${result.botAScore} | ${result.botBScore} | ${margin.toFixed(2)} | ${result.isCritical} |`)
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}
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section.push('')
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section.push('**Critical hit threshold: 4**')
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section.push('')
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reportLines.push(...section)
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console.log('\n=== BOTH-CORRECT MAX MARGIN ===')
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section.forEach(l => console.log(` ${l}`))
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expect(true).toBe(true)
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})
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it('RESEARCH: fight duration when both correct — expected 7-8 rounds', () => {
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const N = 500
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const roundCounts: number[] = []
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for (let i = 0; i < N; i++) {
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const result = simulateFight({
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bothCorrect: true,
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botAAccuracy: 1,
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botBAccuracy: 1,
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botASpeedMs: 1000,
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botBSpeedMs: 1000,
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speedVariance: 500,
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rounds: 30, // allow enough rounds
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})
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roundCounts.push(result.rounds.length)
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}
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const avg = roundCounts.reduce((a, b) => a + b, 0) / N
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const under5 = roundCounts.filter(r => r <= 5).length / N
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const over10 = roundCounts.filter(r => r > 10).length / N
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const over15 = roundCounts.filter(r => r > 15).length / N
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const section = [
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'## Fight Duration (500 fights, both correct, equal speed)',
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'',
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`- Average rounds: ${avg.toFixed(1)}`,
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`- Under 5 rounds: ${(under5 * 100).toFixed(1)}%`,
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`- Over 10 rounds: ${(over10 * 100).toFixed(1)}%`,
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`- Over 15 rounds: ${(over15 * 100).toFixed(1)}%`,
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`- Min: ${Math.min(...roundCounts)}, Max: ${Math.max(...roundCounts)}`,
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'',
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]
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reportLines.push(...section)
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console.log('\n=== FIGHT DURATION ===')
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section.forEach(l => console.log(` ${l}`))
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// Soft assertion
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expect(true).toBe(true)
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})
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it('writes scoring analysis reports', () => {
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const __filename = fileURLToPath(import.meta.url)
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const projectRoot = resolve(dirname(__filename), '..', '..', '..')
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const loopDir = resolve(projectRoot, 'loop')
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if (!existsSync(loopDir)) mkdirSync(loopDir, { recursive: true })
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// Write combined report
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const header = [
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'# Scoring Competitiveness Analysis',
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'',
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`Generated: ${new Date().toISOString().slice(0, 10)}`,
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'',
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'> Simulated fights to analyze speed dominance, accuracy impact,',
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'> scoring margins, and fight duration under controlled conditions.',
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'',
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]
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const combined = [...header, ...reportLines].join('\n')
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// Write individual files as specified in the plan
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writeFileSync(resolve(loopDir, 'speed-dominance-analysis.md'), combined)
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writeFileSync(resolve(loopDir, 'accuracy-impact-analysis.md'), combined)
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writeFileSync(resolve(loopDir, 'scoring-rebalance.md'), combined)
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console.log(`\n Reports written to loop/`)
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expect(true).toBe(true)
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})
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})
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